Irina E. Kalabikhina, Diana T. Chkoniia Determinants of the Duration of Demographic Recovery of Russian Regions from the COVID-19 Pandemic

DOI: 10.38050/2078-3809-2024-16-4-108-124

Abstract

The purpose of this work is to calculate and identify the determinants of time for the demographic recovery of Russian regions from the coronavirus pandemic. The study assessed excess mortality in the Russian regions during and after the coronavirus pandemic as the difference between the monthly standardized mortality rates observed in 2020, 2021 and 2022 and the expected monthly standardized mortality rates adjusted for the time trend. The duration of post-crisis demographic recovery was calculated for the first time. The results indicate the incompleteness of the recovery process in some regions and a high gap in its duration – the lag from the leading regions was at least a year. Using the ‘lifetime’ model, the determinants of the duration of demographic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic have been determined. It was revealed that the regions most affected during the pandemic (in which there was a deeper drop in LE) took longer to recover. The process of recovery from the epidemiological shock of the pandemic occurred faster in those regions where more active actions were taken to mobilize nursing staff; to make additional incentive payments to doctors providing medical care to patients with a new coronavirus infection; and to vaccinate the population.

Keywords: excess mortality, demographic recovery, the coronavirus pandemic, interregional inequality.

JEL: J10, I18.

For citation: Kalabikhina, I.E., Chkoniia, D.T.  (2024) Determinants of the Duration of Demographic Recovery of Russian Regions from the COVID-19 Pandemic. Scientific Research of Faculty of Economics. Electronic Journal, vol. 16, no. 4, pp. 108-124. DOI: 10.38050/2078-3809-2024-16-4-108-124.

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