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Valery A. Samsonov, Sanat K. Seitov Assessment of the contribution of the shadow economy to the macroeconomic indicators of the regions of the Russian Federation

DOI: 10.38050/2078-3809-2022-14-1-68-85


The purpose of this article is to assess the impact of the results of shadow economic activity on the value of the main macroeconomic indicator at the regional level in the Russian Federation - the gross regional product. The article uses the definition of the category "shadow economy", first formally formulated in the 1993 SNA, developed by the UN Statistical Commission. Based on it, a statistical assessment of the shadow economy in the subjects of the Russian Federation from 2010 to 2016 was carried out by improving the existing Rosstat methodology since no adjustment of the GVA for shadow operations is made at the regional level. The relative scale of the shadow component was measured, i.e. its share in GRP in 80 subjects of the Russian Federation. The analysis is limited to 2016, since a new classifier of economic activities has been put into effect since this year, which does not allow analyzing the contribution of individual industries to GRP due to their different economic content, even while maintaining the former name. At the next stage, the study carries out clustering of Russian regions by the share of the shadow economy in GRP. The results showed that both for the country as a whole and for individual subjects of the Russian Federation, during the analyzed period, there was a decrease in the share of the shadow economy in GRP.

Keywords: unobservable economy, shadow economy, illegal activity, gross regional product, share of the shadow economy in GRP.

JEL: C10, C12, C49.

For citation: Samsonov, V.A., Seitov, S.K. (2022) Assessment of the contribution of the shadow economy to the macroeconomic indicators of the regions of the Russian Federation. Scientific Research of Faculty of Economics. Electronic Journal, vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 68-85. DOI: 10.38050/2078-3809-2022-14-1-68-85