Timofey Yu. Gaydin Alexey K. Poliakov Paradox of Generic Drug Competition: Semaglutide Case Study

DOI: 10.38050/2078-3809-2026-18-1-84-102

Abstract

In this paper, we tested the paradox of competition of reproduced drugs, proposed by Alberto Cavalieri and Giovanni Crea, using the example of a drug with the international nonproprietary name semaglutide on Russian data. It was revealed that after the release of the reproduced drugs, the price of the original Ozempik drug increased significantly, which contradicts modern economic theory and Bertrand's model, according to which the price should decrease. The paradox of the competition of reproduced drugs in Russia is traced using the example of the drug semaglutide, however, the political and social conditions in which it occurred require further study and analysis. Data on other glucose-lowering drugs were also used in the simulation. In our work, a regression model was built to assess the market situation for drugs with the active ingredient semaglutide using the least squares method and a fixed-effects model, which confirmed the paradox of competition.

Keywords: economic theory, semaglutide, competition, the paradox of competition.

JEL: L13, L65.

For citation: Gaydin, T.Yu., Poliakov A. K. (2026) Paradox of Generic Drug Competition: Semaglutide Case Study. Scientific Research of Faculty of Economics. Electronic Journal, vol. 18, no. 1, pp. 84-102. DOI: 10.38050/2078-3809-2026-18-1-84-102.

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