Larisa A. Karaseva, Alexey A. Okhrimenko, Darya S. Popova Approaches to Assessing Real Macroeconomic Dynamics

DOI: 10.38050/2078-3809-2026-18-3-37-51

Abstract

The article is devoted to the development of possible approaches to improve the assessment of the real dynamics of macroeconomic indicators, which is a prerequisite for analyzing trends in the changing level of socio-economic development of the country, and the initial prerequisite for the formation of an economic development strategy. To obtain data on the real volume of GDP, the gross value added (GVA) by type of economic activity and gross domestic product (GDP) by the economy as a whole are converted into comparable prices (average annual prices of the previous year). The authors analyzed methodologies for developing producer price indices for goods and services, consumer price indices, and physical volume indices for goods and services in order to assess the possibility of their direct use for revaluation of gross output and intermediate consumption at comparable prices. Algorithms are proposed for using these indices to carry out double deflation of the considered indicators in Russia in order to obtain a more correct assessment of the dynamics of the physical volume of GDP. The article is based on the results of a study carried out by the authors on behalf of the Rosstat Research Institute of Statistics within the framework of the Project «Development of recommendations for the introduction of the double deflation method in GDP calculations based on tables of resources and use of goods and services» code for the All-Russian classifier of products by type of economic activity 72.20.11.000 in the interests of the Federal State Statistics Service, Office for the Development of tables «Input–Output».

Keywords: gross output, gross domestic product, gross value added, intermediate consumption, producer price indices, consumer price index, indices of production of goods and services, double deflation, tables of resources and usage.

JEL: C82, E10, E23, E31.

For citation: Karaseva, L.A., Okhrimenko, A. A., Popova, D. S.  (2026) Approaches to Assessing Real Macroeconomic Dynamics. Scientific Research of Faculty of Economics. Electronic Journal, vol. 18, no. 3, pp. 37-51. DOI: 10.38050/2078-3809-2026-18-3-9-37-51.